HOME SALES DROP BUT PRICES HOLD STABLE IN COLUMBIA COUNTY

by Richard Roth - the Independent Newspaper, Hillsdale, NY

posted 01/10/09

Columbia County has not so far seen the intense bottoming-out of real estate prices experienced in many parts of the country.

But figures provided by the New York State Association of Realtors (NYSAR) last month show a 65.5% decrease in the number of monthly sales of existing single-family homes between November 2006, when 55 sales were recorded, and November 2008, when there were only 19 sales. It was the largest decline among the 58 counties in the state for which the organization provides figures.

The statewide drop for the same period was only half as large. The median selling price for existing one-family homes declined 16.7% during the same period, according to NYSAR, dropping from $227,000 in November 2006 to $189,000 in November 2008. That was only slightly more than the statewide average drop in prices. And compared to November of 2007, the median sale price of existing homes remained essentially the same, dipping only a half a percent.

Rick Rielly, president of the Columbia-Greene Board of Realtors, cautioned against placing too much importance on the numbers. "Those statistics don't take into account a lot of things we realtors consider," said Mr. Rielly. "We know how many sales are pending, with accepted offers or under contract." November sales in Columbia County actually increased 15% compared to last year, according to Mr. Rielly, but not all of those sales have been included in the NYSAR figures.

"Loans are taking longer to go through the approval process and to actually close," he said. "Banks are being more careful, as they should be." Mr. Rielly said "high-end stuff" is doing "reasonably okay" locally, as are existing homes at the low end of the market. But the "middle ground," which he defines as houses priced between $300- and $500,000, on the other hand, is "taking longer" to recover from the slowdown.

Multiple Listing Service figures provided by Andrew DeGiacomo of Hudson Town and Country Realty show a gradual decline in the total number of residential sales in the county over the last five years, from a high of 754 in 2004, to a low of 421 in 2008. Sales of homes valued at less than $250,000 declined from 462 in 2004 to 238 in 2008. But high-end homes held their own: sales of homes valued at more than $1 million almost doubled, going from 8 homes sold in 2004 to 15 in 2008. Homes costing between $500,000 and $1 million decreased, but only by 20%, from a total of 77 in 2004 to 62 last year.

In general, brokers were taking an optimistic view. "Our market is a little bit slower than it has been, but nothing that I see as being grossly unusual," said Barbara Robinson of Red Apple Realty in Claverack. "I've looked at showing sheets for the past several months. During really high times we were showing maybe 8 or 10 homes on a weekend, and we're still at 4 or 5." While people may not have as much disposable income for a weekend home under current economic conditions, said Ms. Robinson, "people who need a place to live are still active."

Mr. Rielly acknowledged local realtors "do count considerably" on the second home market, which could be affected by the downturn in financial markets. But he said he believes "the curve has bottomed out" and is going the other way. "More of those people are coming out of the woodwork now," he said. He believes that's because people have realized that this may be the time to make the best buy.

"It's still a tough market. I'm not trying to sugarcoat anything," said Mr. Rielly. "People should be aware that there are fewer houses on the market. But very recently I've had the sense that, due to pending sales, the numbers are up, and that to me is very encouraging."

Two things to keep in mind in viewing the NYSAR figures, Mr. Rielly said, are that this is always a sluggish time of year, and that the sample size used in NYSAR statistics is small--23 homes this year, as against 40 a year ago. "A few sales this way or that, with contingent contracted sales that haven't been closed, can make a huge difference," said Mr. Rielly.

Realtors also point to a well-documented long-term appreciation in selling prices. According to the December 23 NYSAR release, the statewide median selling price in 2001 was $164,900, and in 2008 it was $210,000. "You might see a little decrease but it's temporary and cyclical," said Ms. Robinson. "[The market] will be up again. In the long run it always goes up."

The Multiple Listing Service currently shows 69 sales "in the hopper," according to Mr. Rielly, some contingent upon a satisfactory home inspection or mortgage approval, and others under contract and expected to close in the near future. "Stuff gets written and people react by backing off," said Mr. Rielly. "[But] if you look at the big picture it's a little better than that scary number in the press report," said Mr. Rielly.

Both Mr. Rielly and Ms. Robinson said mortgage money is readily available to qualified buyers, and that interest rates are low. "Interest rates are in the mid-4s right now," said Mr. Rielly, referring to mortgages being offered at around 4%. "Money through this whole tough time has remained pretty reasonable." T

he federal government could take several steps immediately to jumpstart the housing market, according to NYSAR. Those include making closing on mortgages easier for those with good credit, implementing policies to help current owners modify their loans to avoid foreclosure, and making permanent higher loan limits for Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and FHA.

The 2008 state budget includes $25 million to help homeowners who entered into a subprime or unconventional mortgage by providing counseling and legal services.

Columbia County homeowners at risk of foreclosure are encouraged to contact Housing Resources of Columbia County to seek assistance. Housing Resources is at 757 Columbia Street in Hudson; the telephone number is (518) 822-0707.

By Richard Roth,

email: rroth@IndeNews.com

The Independent